How To Mathematically Prove A Streamer Isn't Smurfing in Dead by Daylight



Read more Dead by Daylight ➜ https://deadbydaylight.mgn.gg

there, shut up now.
Source: https://deadbydaylight.fandom.com/wiki/Skill-Based_Matchmaking_Rating?so=search

source

47 thoughts on “How To Mathematically Prove A Streamer Isn't Smurfing in Dead by Daylight”

  1. its definitely interesting to see the explanation but ultimately meaningless because the tweet you made this video in response to only mentioned YT content by name.

    the biggest content creators are not the majority, which is also something worth mentioning. beyond this, few YT videos show the post game screen where you can see the shards.

    Reply
  2. My problem with MMR is that I view myself as a relatively skilled player, but I don't like killing survivors. I know, it's weird. To me, getting third hook means that the player is taken out of the game and that isn't fun. I want to have fun, I want the people I play with to have fun, but the fun stops when they're dead on hook. So I get 8-hooks and then just drop them in front of the hook. Naturally, the MMR thinks I'm inept because I consistently get 0 kills most games – so I get absolute babies. I hate it. They don't know what's going on half the time and I feel 10x worse about hooking them in the first place. So yeah, I dislike MMR being based purely on kills.

    Reply
  3. You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!

    So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice!

    Reply
  4. Tru3 is so messy! 😂Always starting ish and acting like a victim when called out. Yeah you can have an opinion but don’t expect everyone to magically agree with you. It goes both ways people fail to realize this fact when they decide to open their mouths…🙄😒

    Reply
  5. ah but scott you forgot they’re clearly just cheating to change their mmr without changing their level, obviously, it’s not like matchmaking sucks ass or anything and can’t match skill properly

    Reply
  6. Tru3 recently did an "experiment" on stream where he created a smurf account and played killer without perks or add-ons. Racked up around a 30+ winstreak, all while making fun of the survivors he wss going against. Then the next day, he tried the same thing on his main account and lost the very first match without perks or add-ons. He claims his experiment was a success because it proves the game has MMR and that he's tired of people saying MMR doesn't matter. Lol

    Reply
  7. I'm pretty sure when people talk about others smurfin' they are talking about using a whole other account altogether. I'm not sure either way as I don't watch to much survivor content but are they actually showing their shard count in the yout tube videos?

    Reply
  8. You really need to take a break from the game and learn to leave shit alone. The fact this bothered you so much to make a video about it… Jesus dude, play some got damn Elden Ring or something.

    Reply
  9. Problem is that someone like truetalent blames abstract streamers without concrete examples.. and someone like scott have to come up with a verification algorithm suitable for everyone around😂

    Reply
  10. You can debunk that "losing without changing iri shards" by just looking at the rest of the games till they get more iri shards to see if there is a difference of gaining shards from when they ended stream last time.

    Reply
  11. whats the most logical explanation for JRM and Ayrun making a killer miss a basic attack at a window 6 times in a row and then 360-ing the same killer another 3 times. This is on youtube where they dont show their in game resources, I know even high MMR survivors will at times go against 400-hr bad killers but some of these killer on youtube can't even counter a 360 spin in under 3 attempts like what !???

    Reply
  12. Remember guys(not you main survs) every time you see these average streamers change their escape for a random it's because they wanna die to decrease their Mmr. Mmr exists. Try play K, slug, camp, Proxy do whatever you want to get 4k every single game, in 3 days you will get try hard survivors and always a two 100s(or more) and wayy more squads. These guys are in the same discord defending Aryun JRM, Hens, Spooks and those average popular streamers, all go them do the same, decrease their Mmr to face baby K just for their content. That's why they do those 50 winstreak with no effort. 🥱🥱

    Reply
  13. We wouldn't have to do all this sleuthing if Behaviour just showed us what our MMR was…like it was for the first 5 or whatever years of the game and how it's done in most other online multiplayer/competitive games to this day.

    Reply
  14. Tinfoil hat time… Also, am not aware at all if anyone performed this IS check against any winstreak streams, be interesting if a good portion of them actually retained their IS number across at least a good number of streams, although they may have legitimately played casual matches on the other side cause they felt like it and change their IS number that way, so on that note, kind of weird that people think there can be a strict environment for these winstreaks to be deemed as legitimate.
    I just find it weird, despite how popularly it is claimed that there is a supposedly wide ass MMR system that essentially it doesn't exist for these winstreakers and anyone else, that there can be insane winstreaks on any killer that isn't nurse, it's like they never or at least frequently enough go against sweaty ass, comp-like SWFs.

    Firstly, let's try to calculate the typical in-stream winstreak win MMR score for someone we may suspect is smurfing, and then use that to gauge how much MMR they need to lose in their deranking off-stream. That allows us to figure out typically how many matches they would need to essentially erase their MMR gain during stream, and if it is unrealistic to fit within 4.2k (presumable xp needed per level) or possibly even less XP. Lastly, let's see if there is a way for the streamer to know/ensure that they end up leveling in their last stream match so as to allow for as much deranking matches without leveling up.

    In their smurf MMR, since it's lower than their natural MMR, their character is more likely to to be matched against someone of the same smurf MMR (I'm assuming a reasonable MMR distribution across all players for this, where their smurf MMR is on the right side of the peak of the distribution), so when they do win, it's going to be somewhat less than 13 (2/3rd way into maximum 20 points, 20 being against higher MMR players in a long match) as they would likely close the match without making it long, so let's it like 8 points average.

    Won matches * 8 = Stream's MMR gain

    Based on various winstreak VODs that I browsed through, average number of matches per stream looks to be ~10.
    There would be an expected slighty lower MMR gain per win as there are more and more wins/higher MMR score, as you would be more likely to face opponents of lower MMR, but to make things practical and to also make this case harder to make, we'll keep the average win MMR gain at 8.
    So 8 * 10 = 80 MMR gain per typical stream.

    Now, for the off-stream part, let's calculate how much much MMR they typically lose, which helps us figure out number of needed matches/XP gain and ultimately whether this can fit within 4.2k or possibly even less XP to avoid level up.
    Presumably, in order to not get mass reported for being afk and wasting people's time, they would go ahead and do some shit chases (either as survivor or killer) to not raise suspicion and ultimately either die quickly as survivor or get 0k as killer.
    For killer it's just yeah, do shit chases and maybe get a hook or two, game lasts like 5/6 minutes since gens barely get disrupted.
    For survivor they can equip something like Object of Obsession to make the killer know where they are quickly, or hell they just run out in to the open like a clueless/baby survivor and the killer is just going to take the free down after a shit chase/bad movement, and then repeat until they're dead,we can pretty much estimate the game for them lasts like 5/6 minutes.

    So let's take 6 minutes as typical time spent per match, that is 360 xp, with on average silver emblem quality for all 4 emblems, which should be 6xp per silver emblem, making it 24 xp.
    So 384 xp average per match.
    Now, how much MMR loss per match so we can figure out how many matches and so how much xp we have to accrue to erase the stream MMR gain?

    For survivor, since we're expected to go against relatively lower MMR killers due to the stream MMR gain, albeit losing in a somewhat quick match looks to result a loss of 10 MMR points.
    So 8 matches needed -> 384 * 8 = 3072 XP
    For killer, same expected matchmaking logic and match duration above, expected loss of 10 MMR points.
    So same amount of XP needed, 3k XP.

    Now, to end this theory off, how can a streamer ensure that they end up leveling in their last stream match?
    A simple and practical way is to know how much more they need is by, after a match mid-stream or so, in the results tabs, go in the 3rd tab as it shows player level progress, and by that extent remaining xp to reach next level.
    Since 1 xp/s, they can approximate how many more minutes, and by that extent, expected number of matches they need to level up.
    There is at least 1 other way in order to throw off any suspicions that they're checking their player level progress to approximate number of matches left to level up, but that kind of rolls off to the point I mentioned in my opening paragraph, in that there may no real level of scrutiny that prompts a winstreak streamer to be discrete about this whole process.

    Reply

Leave a Comment